Scenario Planning for Climate Change
A Guide for Strategists

Winner of the 2020 Book Award for the Organizations and the Natural Environment (ONE) Division of the Academy of Management.

Climate change, and the resultant impact on resource management and societal wellbeing, is one of the greatest challenges facing businesses and their long-term performance. Uncertainty about access to resources, unanticipated weather events, rapidly changing market conditions and potential social unrest is felt across all business and industry sectors. This book sets out an engaging step-by-step scenario-planning method that executives, Board members, managers and consultants can follow to develop a long-term strategy for climate change tailored for their business.

Most climate change strategy books discuss climate mitigation only, focusing on how companies engage with carbon policy, new technologies, markets and other stakeholders about reducing carbon emissions. This book explores these themes but also looks at strategizing for climate change adaptation. Adaptation is equally important, especially given that companies cannot negotiate with nature. There is a need to interpret climate science for business in a way that acknowledges the realities of climate change and identifies a way forwards in responding to this uncertain future.

Chapter 1: An Introduction to Climate Change and Scenario Planning

Chapter 2: Scenario Planning Method Step 1: Set the Agenda, Focal Question and Time Horizon, and Identify Key Stakeholders

Chapter 3: Scenario Planning Method Step 2: Identify, Rate and Rank the Driving Forces

Chapter 4: Scenario Planning Method Step 3: Develop the Scenarios

Chapter 5: Scenario Planning Method Step 4: Identify Warning Signals and Develop a Climate Change Strategy

Chapter 6: Wrapping Up Your Scenario Planning Achievements

Nardia Haigh is a business strategist for sustainability issues. Her research focuses on strategies and business models that address issues like climate change, the management of environmental commons, and pressing social issues. Nardia has researched these issues and consulted with companies about them, and her work appears in outlets including the California Management Review, Journal of Business Ethics, European Management Journal, Organization & Environment, and Business Strategy and the Environment. Dr Haigh has been cited in media outlets such as the Guardian, Ideas for Leaders, and Management INK. Nardia completed her Ph.D. in business management focusing on business strategies in response to climate change at the University of Queensland Business School, in Brisbane, Australia, and is as a tenured Associate Professor of Management at the University of Massachusetts Boston.