The Energy World is Flat
Opportunities from the End of Peak Oil

The Energy World Is Flat provides a forward-looking analysis of the energy markets and addresses the implications of their rapid transformation. Written by acknowledged expert Daniel Lacalle, who is actively engaged with energy portfolios in the financial space, this book is grounded in experience with the world of high-stakes finance, and relays a realist's perspective of the current and future state of the energy markets. Readers will be brought up to date on the latest developments in the area, and learn the strategies that allow investors to profit from these developments. An examination of the markets' history draws parallels between past and current shifts, and a discussion of technological advancements helps readers understand the issues driving these changes.

Energy has always been at the forefront of the economic agenda, being both the key to and a driver for development and growth. Its centrality to the world of finance makes it imperative for investors and analysts to understand the energy markets, irrespective of where on the wide range of energy spectrum observers they fall. The Energy World Is Flat is a guide to the past, present, and future of these crucial markets, and the strategies that make them profitable. These include:

• Understanding the state of the energy markets, including key developments and changes
• Discovering the ten pillars of a successful energy investment strategy
• Reviewing the history of the energy markets to put recent changes into perspective
• Learning which technologies are driving the changes, and how it will affect investors

The recent energy market changes were both unexpected and so fundamental in nature that they represent a true shift in the energy macro- and microeconomic landscape. Investors and analysts seeking a stronger approach to these markets need the expert guidance provided by The Energy World Is Flat.

Chapter 1 The Mother of All Battles. The Flattening and Globalization of the Energy World 1

Chapter 2 Lessons from the Internet Revolution and the Dotcom Bubble 11

Chapter 3 The 10 Forces that are Flattening the Energy World 31

Chapter 4 Flattener #1 – Geopolitics: The Two Sides of the Energy Security Coin 35

Chapter 5 Flattener #2 – The Energy Reserves and Resources Glut 53

Sorry, No Peak Oil 64

No Peak Gas Either 76

Chapter 6 Flattener #3 – Horizontal Drilling and Fracking 85

Chapter 7 Flattener #4 – The Energy Broadband 103

Chapter 8 Flattener #5 – Overcapacity 117

Chapter 9 Flattener #6 – Globalization, Industrialization, and Urbanization 123

Chapter 10 Flattener #7 – Demand Destruction 131

Chapter 11 Flattener #8 – Demand Displacement 135

The Battle for Transportation Demand 135

The Battle for Electricity and Industrial Demand 148

The Energy Domino 151

Chapter 12 Flattener #9 – Regulation and Government Intervention 159

Regulation vs. Free Markets 160

The War on Pollution and Coal 165

Renewable Energy and the Disinflation of Power Prices 172

Biofuels and Food Inflation 193

Chapter 13 Flattener #10 – Fiscal, Monetary, and Macroeconomic Flatteners 207

The Btu that Broke OPEC’s Back 209

The Oil Tax Weapon 214

Monetary Experiments and the Credit Risk Time Bomb 220

Financial Flows. Let’s Blame the Speculators 232

Chapter 14 Implications and Opportunities in the Financial Markets 245

Concluding Remarks 275

Appendix For a Competitive European Energy Policy 279

Index 289

DANIEL LACALLE is an economist, fund manager and certified financial analyst specialised in Global Energy with experience in equities, bonds and commodities. He holds a postgraduate degree in IESE and a master's degree in economy investigation. After work-ing for ten years in the Oil and Gas sector, in charge of exports to the Middle East and Africa as well as Investor Relations, and in the utilities sector, Mr Lacalle joined the financial sector developing his career as a fund manager in some of the largest investment funds in the world, and was voted Top 3 Generalist and Number 1 Pan-European Buyside Individual in Oil & Gas in Thomson Reuters' Extel Survey in 2011, the leading survey among companies and financial institutions. Author of two best-selling books Nosotros los Mercados and Viaje a la Libertad Económica, now in their fifth and fourth editions respectively, as well as The Life In The Financial Markets (Wiley, 2014).

Website www.dlacalle.com and Twitter @dlacalle

DIEGO PARRILLA is a Hedge Fund Manager at BlueCrest Capital Management where he runs a portfolio of liquid macro commodity strategies. Prior to starting his career in fund management in 2011, Diego worked in commodities sales and trading holding, amongst others, the positions of Managing Director, Global Head of Commodity Solutions and Head of Commodities Asia Pacific. Diego holds a Bachelors and Master of Science in Mining and Petroleum Engineering from the Polytechnic University of Madrid in Spain, a Master of Science in Mineral Economics from the Colorado School of Mines in the USA, and a Master of Science in Petroleum Economics and Management by the French Institute of Petroleum in Paris, France. Diego currently resides in Singapore with his wife and three children.