Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities
Wiley Handbooks in Financial Engineering and Econometrics Series

Coordinator: Veronesi Pietro

Language: English

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640 p. · 22.4x28.7 cm · Hardback

A comprehensive guide to the current theories and methodologies intrinsic to fixed-income securities

Written by well-known experts from a cross section of academia and finance, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities features a compilation of the most up-to-date fixed-income securities techniques and methods. The book presents crucial topics of fixed income in an accessible and logical format. Emphasizing empirical research and real-life applications, the book explores a wide range of topics from the risk and return of fixed-income investments, to the impact of monetary policy on interest rates, to the post-crisis new regulatory landscape.

Well organized to cover critical topics in fixed income, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities is divided into eight main sections that feature:

? An introduction to fixed-income markets such as Treasury bonds, inflation-protected securities, money markets, mortgage-backed securities, and the basic analytics that characterize them

? Monetary policy and fixed-income markets, which highlight the recent empirical evidence on the central banks? influence on interest rates, including the recent quantitative easing experiments

? Interest rate risk measurement and management with a special focus on the most recent techniques and methodologies for asset-liability management under regulatory constraints

? The predictability of bond returns with a critical discussion of the empirical evidence on time-varying bond risk premia, both in the United States and abroad, and their sources, such as liquidity and volatility

? Advanced topics, with a focus on the most recent research on term structure models and econometrics, the dynamics of bond illiquidity, and the puzzling dynamics of stocks and bonds

? Derivatives markets, including a detailed discussion of the new regulatory landscape after the financial crisis and an introduction to no-arbitrage derivatives pricing

? Further topics on derivatives pricing that cover modern valuation techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulations, volatility surfaces, and no-arbitrage pricing with regulatory constraints

? Corporate and sovereign bonds with a detailed discussion of the tools required to analyze default risk, the relevant empirical evidence, and a special focus on the recent sovereign crises

A complete reference for practitioners in the fields of finance, business, applied statistics, econometrics, and engineering,

Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities is also a useful supplementary textbook for graduate and MBA-level courses on fixed-income securities, risk management, volatility, bonds, derivatives, and financial markets.

Pietro Veronesi, PhD, is Roman Family Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he teaches Masters and PhD-level courses in fixed income, risk management, and asset pricing. Published in leading academic journals and honored by numerous awards, his research focuses on stock and bond valuation, return predictability, bubbles and crashes, and the relation between asset prices and government policies.

Notes on Contributors xix

Preface xxv

Part I Fixed Income Markets 1

1 Fixed Income Markets: An Introduction 3

1.1 Introduction 3

1.2 U.S. Treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds 7

1.3 Interest Rates, Yields, and Discounting 8

1.4 The Term Structure of Interest Rates 9

1.4.1 The Economics of the Nominal Yield Curve 9

1.4.2 The Expectations Hypothesis 13

1.4.3 Forward Rates as Expectation of Future Interest Rates? 16

1.4.4 Interpreting a Steepening of the Yield Curve 17

1.5 Pricing Coupon Notes and Bonds 17

1.5.1 Estimating the Zero-Coupon Discount Function 18

1.5.2 Data and Bond Illiquidity 19

1.6 Inflation-Protected Securities 19

1.7 Floating Rate Notes 22

1.8 Conclusion 24

References 24

2 Money Market Instruments 25

2.1 Overview of the Money Market 25

2.2 U.S. Treasury Bills 26

2.3 Commercial Paper 27

2.3.1 General Facts about Commercial Paper 27

2.3.2 Nonasset-Backed Commercial Paper 27

2.3.3 Asset-Backed Commercial Paper 28

2.4 Discount Window 29

2.5 Eurodollars 29

2.5.1 Eurodollar Futures 31

2.6 Repurchase Agreements 32

2.6.1 Types of Repos and Haircuts 32

2.6.2 Basic Forms of Repo Collateral 33

2.6.3 Repo Rates and Collateral Value Risks 34

2.6.4 The Run on Repo During the Financial Crisis 34

2.7 Interbank Loans 35

2.7.1 Federal Funds 35

2.7.2 Libor 37

2.7.3 Overnight Index Swaps and LIBOR–OIS Spreads 38

2.7.4 A Model of LIBOR–OIS Spreads 38

2.8 Conclusion 40

References 40

3 Inflation-Adjusted Bonds and the Inflation Risk Premium 41

3.1 Inflation-Indexed Bonds 41

3.1.1 Mechanics of TIPS 42

3.1.2 Valuing an Inflation-Indexed Bond 42

3.2 Inflation Derivatives 42

3.2.1 Constructing a Synthetic Nominal Treasury Bond with Inflation Swaps 42

3.3 No-Arbitrage Pricing 43

3.3.1 Zero-Coupon Bonds 43

3.4 Inflation Risk Premium 43

3.4.1 Determinants of the Inflation Risk Premium 44

3.5 A Look at the Data 45

3.5.1 Break-Even Rates 45

3.5.2 Inflation Swap Rates 46

3.5.3 Inflation Risk Premium 49

3.6 Conclusion 50

3.7 Appendix 50

3.7.1 Breeden–Lucas–Rubinstein Example 50

3.7.2 Disaster Risk 51

3.8 Data Appendix 51

References 52

4 Mortgage-Related Securities (MRSs) 53

4.1 Purpose of the Chapter 53

4.2 Introduction to MRSs 54

4.2.1 Mortgage and Securitization 54

4.2.2 The Cash Flows of Mortgage Pools 55

4.3 Valuation Overview 57

4.3.1 OAS, OAD, and Negative Convexity 58

4.3.2 Modeling Prepayment and Default 60

4.4 Analyzing an MRS 62

4.4.1 Modeling Prepayment and Default 62

4.4.2 Freddie Mac’s STACR 67

4.4.3 Analyzing the STACR Series 2013-DN1 71

4.5 Summary 72

References 73

Part II Monetary Policy and Fixed Income Markets 75

5 Bond Markets and Monetary Policy 77

5.1 Introduction 77

5.2 High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks 78

5.2.1 Learning About Monetary Policy Surprises 79

5.2.2 The Impact on Treasury Bond Yields 81

5.2.3 The Timing of Expected Fed Interventions 82

5.3 Target Versus Path Shocks 84

5.3.1 The Economics of FOMC Meetings and Bond Yields 86

5.4 Conclusions 90

References 91

6 Bond Markets and Unconventional Monetary Policy 93

6.1 Introduction 93

6.2 Unconventional Policies: The Fed, ECB, and BOE 94

6.2.1 Federal Reserve Operations 94

6.2.2 Bank of England Operations 96

6.2.3 European Central Bank Operations 97

6.3 Unconventional Policies: A Theoretical Framework 101

6.3.1 Portfolio Balance (Duration) Channel 102

6.3.2 Signaling Channel 103

6.3.3 Credit and Capital Constraint Channel 103

6.3.4 Preferred Habitat and Asset Scarcity Channel 104

6.4 Unconventional Policies: The Empirical Evidence 104

6.4.1 The Treasury Bond Market 104

6.4.2 The MBS Market 113

6.4.3 How Persistent is the Effect? 115

6.5 Conclusions 115

References 116

Part III Interest Rate Risk Management 117

7 Interest Rate Risk Management and Asset Liability Management 119

7.1 Introduction 119

7.2 Literature Review 120

7.3 Interest Rate Risk Measures 120

7.3.1 Duration 121

7.3.2 Convexity 122

7.3.3 Key Rate Duration 123

7.3.4 Principal Component Analysis and Factor Duration 123

7.4 Application to Asset Liability Management 127

7.4.1 Nature of Liabilities 127

7.4.2 Cash Flow Matching 128

7.4.3 Classic Immunization and Duration Matching 130

7.4.4 Key Rate Duration Matching 133

7.4.5 Factor Duration Matching 137

7.5 Backtesting ALM Strategies 141

7.6 Liability Hedging and Portfolio Construction 142

7.7 Conclusions 144

7.8 Appendix: The Implementation of Principal Component Analysis 145

References 146

8 Optimal Asset Allocation in Asset Liability Management 147

8.1 Introduction 147

8.2 Yield Smoothing 150

8.3 ALM Problem 151

8.3.1 Return and Yield Dynamics 152

8.3.2 Preferences 153

8.3.3 Constraints 154

8.3.4 Data Description and Estimation 155

8.4 Method 155

8.5 Single-Period Portfolio Choice 156

8.5.1 ALM with a VaR Constraint 156

8.5.2 ALM with AFCs 158

8.6 Dynamic Portfolio Choice 160

8.6.1 Welfare and Portfolio Implications of Yield Smoothing 160

8.6.2 Hedging Demands and Regulatory Constraints 161

8.7 Conclusion 164

8.8 Appendix: Return Model Parameter Estimates 165

8.9 Appendix: Benchmark Without Liabilities 165

References 166

Part IV the Predictability of Bond Returns 169

9 International Bond Risk Premia 171

9.1 Introduction 171

9.2 Literature Review 172

9.3 Notation and International Bond Market Data 174

9.3.1 Notation 174

9.3.2 International Bond Market Data 174

9.4 Unconditional Risk Premia 174

9.4.1 A Long-Term Perspective 174

9.4.2 More Recent Evidence 176

9.5 Conditional Risk Premia 177

9.5.1 Local Predictors of Returns 178

9.5.2 Global Predictors of Returns 182

9.6 Understanding Bond Risk Premia 185

9.6.1 Links to Economic Growth 185

9.6.2 State Dependency 187

9.7 Conclusion and Outlook 187

References 189

10 Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity 191

10.1 Introduction 191

10.2 Brief Literature Review 192

10.3 Bond Data and Definitions 193

10.3.1 Bond Notation and Definitions 193

10.3.2 Yield Data 194

10.4 Estimating the Liquidity Differential Between Inflation-Indexed and Nominal Bond Yields 194

10.4.1 Estimation Strategy 196

10.4.2 Data on Liquidity and Inflation Expectation Proxies 197

10.4.3 Estimating Differential Liquidity 197

10.5 Bond Excess Return Predictability 201

10.5.1 Economic Significance of Bond Risk Premia 205

10.6 Conclusion 206

References 208

11 U.S. Treasury Market: The High-Frequency Evidence 210

11.1 Introduction 210

11.2 The U.S. Treasury Markets During the Financial Crisis 211

11.2.1 Yields 211

11.2.2 Volatility 212

11.2.3 Off-the-Run/On-the-Run Yield Spread 213

11.2.4 Trading Volume and Price Impact 214

11.2.5 Fails 215

11.2.6 Intraday Evidence on March 18, 2009 215

11.2.7 Summary 216

11.3 The Reaction of Bond Prices and Interest Rates to Macroeconomic News 217

11.3.1 Level Effects 217

11.3.2 The Impact of Monetary Policy 218

11.3.3 Realized-Volatility Patterns 219

11.3.4 Macro News and Option-Implied Volatilities 220

11.3.5 ARCH and GARCH Effects 222

11.3.6 Jumps 224

11.3.7 Summary 227

11.4 Market-Microstructure Effects 228

11.4.1 Microstructure Effects in the Cash Market 228

11.4.2 Joint Microstructure Effects in the Cash Market and Futures Markets 231

11.4.3 Summary 232

11.5 Bond Risk Premia 232

11.5.1 Daily Evidence 232

11.5.2 Intraday Evidence 233

11.5.3 Summary 234

11.6 The Impact of High-Frequency Trading 234

11.6.1 The Effects of HFT on Liquidity, Volatility, and Risk Premia 234

11.6.2 Summary 236

11.7 Conclusions 236

References 236

Part V Advanced Topics on Term Structure Models and Their Estimation 239

12 Structural Affine Models for Yield Curve Modeling 241

12.1 Purpose and Structure of This Chapter 241

12.2 Structural Models 242

12.3 A Simple Taxonomy 242

12.4 Why do we Need No-Arbitrage Models After All? 243

12.5 Affine Models and the Drivers of The Yield Curve 244

12.5.1 Expectations 244

12.5.2 Term (Risk) Premia 244

12.5.3 Convexity 246

12.6 Introducing No-Arbitrage 247

12.7 Which Variables Should One use? 247

12.8 Risk Premia Implied by Affine Models with Constant Market Price of Risk 249

12.9 Testable Predictions: Constant Market Price of Risk 251

12.10 What Do We Know About Excess Returns? 251

12.11 Understanding the Empirical Results on term Premia 252

12.12 Enriching the First-Generation Affine Models 254

12.13 Latent Variables: The D’Amico, Kim, and Wei Model 254

12.14 From Linear Regressors to Affine Models: the ACM Approach 255

12.15 Affine Models using Principal Components as Factors 256

12.16 The Predictions from the “Modern” Models 258

12.17 Conclusions 261

12.17.1 Models as Enforcers of Parsimony and Builders of Confidence 261

12.17.2 Models as Enforcers of Cross-Sectional Restrictions 262

12.17.3 Models as Revealers of Forward-Looking Informations 262

12.17.4 Models as Enhancers of Understanding 262

References 263

13 The Econometrics of Fixed-Income Markets 265

13.1 Introduction 265

13.2 Different Types of Term Structure Models 266

13.2.1 Factor Models 266

13.2.2 Observable Factors 267

13.2.3 Latent Factors: Filtering versus Indirect Observation 267

13.2.4 Macroeconomic Models 267

13.2.5 Affine Models 268

13.2.6 Yield-Based Models 268

13.2.7 Forward-Based Models 269

13.3 Parametric Estimation Methods 269

13.3.1 GMM 270

13.3.2 Maximum Likelihood 270

13.3.3 QML 271

13.3.4 Efficient Method of Moments 271

13.3.5 Estimation Bias in Mean-Reversion Parameters 272

13.4 Maximum Likelihood Estimation 272

13.4.1 Observed State Variables 272

13.4.2 Latent State Variables 273

13.5 Constructing the Likelihood Function: Expansion of the Transition Density 275

13.5.1 Reducibility 276

13.5.2 The Irreducible Case 277

13.6 Concluding Remarks 278

References 279

14 Recent Advances in Old Fixed-Income Topics: Liquidity, Learning, and the Lower Bound 282

14.1 Introduction 282

14.2 Liquidity 283

14.2.1 Bills, Notes, and Bonds 283

14.2.2 Market Liquidity and Short-Selling Costs 284

14.2.3 Hedging Demand 286

14.2.4 Risky Arbitrage 287

14.2.5 Segmented Markets and Preferred Habitats 287

14.2.6 Funding Risk 288

14.2.7 Implication for Term Structure Models 290

14.3 Learning 291

14.3.1 Yield Survey Forecasts 292

14.3.2 Affine Term Structure Models 293

14.3.3 Spanning Survey Forecasts 297

14.3.4 Adaptive Learning and Survey Forecasts 299

14.3.5 Equilibrium Models of the Term Structure 300

14.4 Lower Bound 301

14.4.1 Square-Root and Autoregressive Gamma Models 301

14.4.2 Black (1995) – Tobin (1958) 303

14.4.3 No-Dominance Term Structure Models 305

14.4.4 Recent Empirical Results 306

14.5 Conclusion 309

14.6 Appendix: Moments of Truncated Bivariate Distribution 310

References 311

15 The Economics of the Comovement of Stocks and Bonds 313

15.1 Introduction 313

15.2 A Brief Literature Survey 313

15.3 The Stock–Bond Covariance and Learning about Fundamentals 315

15.3.1 Investors’ Beliefs About Composite Regimes 316

15.3.2 Valuations and the “Fed Model” 316

15.3.3 Explaining the Time Variation in the Stock–Bond Covariance 318

15.4 Beliefs from Surveys and from the Model 319

15.5 Survey and Model Beliefs and the Stock–Bond Covariance 319

15.6 Some International Evidence 322

15.7 Summary 325

References 325

Part VI Derivatives: Markets and Pricing 327

16 Interest Rate Derivatives Products and Recent Market Activity in the New Regulatory Framework 329

16.1 Introduction 329

16.2 Background on the New Derivatives Regulatory Framework 331

16.2.1 Clearing 332

16.2.2 Execution 333

16.2.3 Reporting 333

16.3 Exchange-Traded Derivatives 335

16.3.1 Major Products 335

16.3.2 Execution 336

16.3.3 Clearing 336

16.3.4 Market Activity 339

16.4 Noncleared Swaps 341

16.4.1 Major Products 341

16.4.2 Execution 342

16.4.3 Credit Risk Mitigation 345

16.4.4 Market Activity 351

16.5 Cleared Swaps 354

16.5.1 Major Products 354

16.5.2 Market Activity 355

16.6 Comparative Market Activity Across Execution Venues 360

16.6.1 OTC versus Exchange-Traded Interest Rate Derivatives 360

16.6.2 Bilateral versus SEF Execution of OTC Interest Rate Derivatives 363

16.7 Liquidity Fragmentation in Nondollar Swaps 366

16.8 Prospects for the Future 368

16.8.1 Cleared Swaps and Exchange-Traded Interest Rate Derivatives 369

16.8.2 Swap Futures 370

16.8.3 Noncleared Swaps and End Users 370

16.9 Appendix: The New Regulatory Framework for Interest Rate Derivatives in the United States and European Union 371

16.9.1 Classifications of Market Participants 371

16.9.2 Clearing 373

16.9.3 Execution 375

16.9.4 Reporting 376

16.9.5 Margin Requirements for Noncleared Swaps 377

16.9.6 Capital Requirements for Noncleared Swaps 379

16.9.7 Cross-Border and Extraterritoriality Issues 381

References 385

17 Risk-Neutral Pricing: Trees 389

17.1 Introduction 389

17.2 Binomial Trees 389

17.2.1 One-Step Binomial Trees 389

17.2.2 The Market Price of Risk 393

17.3 Risk-Neutral Pricing on Multistep Trees 394

17.3.1 Calibration of Risk-Neutral Trees to the Yield Curve 395

17.3.2 The Pricing of European Options 397

17.3.3 The Pricing of American Options 400

17.4 From Diffusion Models to Binomial Trees 403

17.4.1 The Hull and White Model 405

17.5 Trinomial Trees 406

17.5.1 Calibration to the Yield Curve 407

17.5.2 Pricing Bermudan Contracts Using the Trinomial Tree 410

17.5.3 Calibration to the Volatility Curve 412

References 413

18 Discounting and Derivative Pricing Before and After the Financial Crisis: An Introduction 414

18.1 Introduction 414

18.2 Forward Rate Agreements (FRAs) 415

18.2.1 Forward Rates 417

18.2.2 Forward Rates after the Crisis 418

18.2.3 A Simple Explanation for the “Arbitrage” 420

18.3 Overnight Index Swaps (OISs) 422

18.3.1 OIS Discount Curve 424

18.4 LIBOR-Based Swaps 424

18.4.1 LIBOR Discount Curve with Single-Curve Pricing 426

18.5 The Crisis and the Double-Curve Pricing of LIBOR-Based Swaps 426

18.5.1 Extracting FRA Rates from Swap Quotes 428

18.5.2 Extracting the Discount Curve from FRA Rates 428

18.5.3 Summing Up 429

18.6 The Pricing of LIBOR-Based Interest Rate Options 430

18.6.1 Black’s Option Pricing Formula 430

18.6.2 Caps and Floors before and after the Crisis 431

18.6.3 Swaptions before and after the Crisis 432

18.7 Conclusions 433

References 433

Part VII Advanced Topics in Derivatives Pricing 435

19 Risk-Neutral Pricing: Monte Carlo Simulations 437

19.1 Introduction 437

19.2 Risk-Neutral Pricing 437

19.2.1 Interest Rate Models 440

19.2.2 The Market Price of Risk 441

19.2.3 Valuation under P and under Q 441

19.2.4 Multifactor Models 442

19.3 Risk-Neutral Pricing: Monte Carlo Simulations 446

19.3.1 Discretization of the Vasicek Model 447

19.3.2 Discretization of the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross Model 448

19.3.3 Interest Rate Modeling at the Zero Lower Bound 451

19.4 Valuation by Monte Carlo Simulation 451

19.4.1 Valuation of Securities with Payoff at Fixed Date 452

19.4.2 mc Valuation of Callable Bonds 455

19.4.3 mc Valuation of Securities with American or Bermudan Exercise Style 456

19.5 Monte Carlo Simulations in Multifactor Models 461

19.5.1 Discretization Procedure of the Affine Factor Models 462

19.5.2 mc Simulations for Callable Securities in Multifactor Models 462

19.6 Conclusion 467

References 467

20 Interest Rate Derivatives and Volatility 469

20.1 Introduction 469

20.2 Markets and the Institutional Context 469

20.2.1 Market Size 469

20.2.2 OTC IRD Trading and Volatility 471

20.2.3 Exchange-Listed IRD Trading and Volatility 472

20.2.4 Recent Developments in the IRD Market 473

20.3 Dissecting the Instruments 473

20.3.1 Government Bonds 474

20.3.2 Time Deposits 476

20.3.3 Forwards Rate Agreements and Interest Rate Swaps 476

20.3.4 Caps, Floors, and Swaptions 478

20.4 Evaluation Paradigms 479

20.4.1 Models of the Short-term Rate 479

20.4.2 No-Arbitrage Models 481

20.4.3 Volatility 485

20.5 Pricing and Trading Volatility 487

20.5.1 Standard Volatility Trading Practice 488

20.5.2 An Introduction to Interest Rate Variance Swaps 489

20.5.3 Pricing Volatility in Three Markets 497

20.5.4 Current Forward-Looking Indexes of IRV 502

20.5.5 Products on IRV Indexes 505

20.6 Conclusions 507

20.7 Appendix 508

References 512

21 Nonlinear Valuation under Margining and Funding Costs with Residual Credit Risk: A Unified Approach 514

21.1 Introduction 514

21.2 Collateralized Credit and Funding Valuation Adjustments 516

21.2.1 Trading under Collateralization and Closeout Netting 517

21.2.2 Trading under Funding Risk 520

21.3 General Pricing Equation Under Credit, Collateral, and Funding 522

21.3.1 Discrete-Time Solution 523

21.3.2 Continuous-Time Solution 524

21.4 Numerical Results: Extending the Black–Scholes Analysis 527

21.4.1 Monte Carlo Algorithm 527

21.4.2 Market, Credit, and Funding Risk Specification 529

21.4.3 Preliminary Analysis without Credit Risk and with Symmetric Funding Rates 529

21.4.4 Full Analysis with Credit Risk, Collateral, and Funding Costs 531

21.4.5 Nonlinearity Valuation Adjustment 533

21.5 Extensions 535

21.6 Conclusions: Bilateral Prices or Nonlinear Values? 536

References 537

Part VIII Corporate and Sovereign Bonds 539

22 Corporate Bonds 541

22.1 Introduction 541

22.2 Market and Data 542

22.2.1 Data on Bond Characteristics 542

22.2.2 Data on Market Prices 542

22.2.3 Understanding Market Data from TRACE 543

22.3 A Very Simple Model 544

22.3.1 The Credit Spread Arising from Expected Loss 545

22.3.2 Adding a Risk Premium 545

22.4 Structural Models 546

22.4.1 Merton’s Model with Beta 546

22.4.2 Bankruptcy Costs 549

22.4.3 Early Default 550

22.5 Reduced-form Models 550

22.5.1 A Useful Approximation 552

22.5.2 Closed-Form Solutions 553

22.6 Risk Premia in Intensity Models 554

22.7 Dealing with Portfolios 556

22.8 Illiquidity as a Source of Spreads 557

22.9 Some Additional Readings 558

22.10 Conclusion 559

References 559

23 Sovereign Credit Risk 561

23.1 Introduction 561

23.2 Literature Review 563

23.3 Modeling Sovereign Default 564

23.3.1 Risk-Neutral Pricing 564

23.3.2 Pricing Sovereign Credit Default Swaps 567

23.3.3 Pricing in a Lognormal Model 568

23.4 Credit Risk Premia 568

23.5 Estimating Intensity Models 569

23.6 Application to Emerging Markets 570

23.6.1 Credit Markets of Emerging Economies 571

23.6.2 Credit Risk Premia in Emerging Credit Markets 572

23.7 Application to the European Debt Crisis 575

23.7.1 Credit Risk Premia in the Eurozone 578

23.8 Conclusion 580

23.9 Appendix: No Arbitrage Pricing 580

23.9.1 The Risk-Neutral Default Intensity 583

References 584

Index 587

Pietro Veronesi, PhD, is Roman Family Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he teaches Masters and PhD-level courses in fixed income, risk management, and asset pricing. Published in leading academic journals and honored by numerous awards, his research focuses on stock and bond valuation, return predictability, bubbles and crashes, and the relation between asset prices and government policies.