Public Opinion, Legitimacy and Tony Blair’s War in Iraq
Routledge Studies in Foreign Policy Analysis Series

In the wake of the publication of the Chilcot report, this book reinterprets the relationship between British public opinion and the Blair government?s decision-making in the run-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. It highlights how the government won the parliamentary vote and got its war, but never won the argument that it was the right thing to do. Understanding how, why and with what consequences Britain wound up in this position means understanding better both this specific case and the wider issue of how democratic publics influence foreign policy processes.

Taking an innovative constructivist approach to understanding how public actors potentially influence foreign policy, Strong frames the debate about Iraq as a contest over legitimacy among active public actors, breaking it down into four constituent elements covering the necessity, legality and morality of war, and the government?s authority. The book presents a detailed empirical account of the British public debate before the invasion of Iraq based on the rigorous interrogation of thousands of primary sources, employing both quantitative and qualitative content analysis methods to interpret the shape of debate between January 2002 and March 2003.

Also contributing to the wider foreign policy analysis literature, the book investigates the domestic politics of foreign policy decision-making, and particularly the influence public opinion exerts; considers the domestic structural determinants of foreign policy decision-making; and studies the ethics of foreign policy decision-making, and the legitimate use of force. It will be of great use to students and scholars of foreign policy analysis, as well as those interested in legitimacy in international conflict, British foreign policy, the Iraq War and the role of public opinion in conflict situations.

Dramatis Personae

1 Introduction: Understanding a controversial war

Structure

Part One: Public opinion

2 British public influence over foreign policy

Searching for the Loch Ness Monster

A constructivist approach

3 The Iraq debate: An overview

Rallying round the flag

Pockets of support

Salience and communication

Part Two: Legitimacy

4 Understanding legitimacy

Legitimacy as a discursive construct

Studying the Blair government’s discursive legitimization efforts

Categorizing the debate

5 Threat and WMD

Judgement

Nuance

Evidence

6 Legality and the UN

Defining the UN’s role

Procedural ambiguities

Clashing timetables

7 Morality and regime change Understanding Tony Blair

Legality and morality

Regime change

8 Politics and authority

The ‘special relationship’

Blaming France

Domestic politics

Part Three: Tony Blair’s war in Iraq

9 Aftermath

Reality asserts itself

David Kelly

The 2005 General Election

10 Implications

Selling the Iraq war

A holistic approach

A two-level debate

James Strong is a Fellow in Foreign Policy Analysis and International Relations in the Department of International Relations at the London School of Economics, UK.