Description
Understanding Elections through Statistics
Polling, Prediction, and Testing
Chapman & Hall/CRC Statistics in the Social and Behavioral Sciences Series
Author: Forsberg Ole J.
Language: EnglishSubjects for Understanding Elections through Statistics:
Keywords
Electoral Division; Polls; Confidence Interval; Brexit; Benford Distribution; Presidential; Simple Random Sampling; Trump; SRS Estimator; Election Forensics; Confidence Interval Endpoints; Polling; Regression Curve; democratic elections; Population Proportion; government legitimacy; Binomial Distribution; legitimate polling scheme; Stratified Estimator; statistical methods; Low MSE; Spatial Lag Model; Geographically Weighted Regression; Leading Digit; Log Uniform Distribution; Average Run Length; Beta Binomial Distribution; Ahn Cheol Soo; OLS Estimator; Agresti Coull Intervals; Electoral Commission; Spatial Lag; UPFA; Sri Lankan; Posterior Distribution
Publication date: 09-2020
· 15.6x23.4 cm · Paperback
Publication date: 11-2020
· 15.6x23.4 cm · Hardback
Description
/li>Contents
/li>Readership
/li>Biography
/li>
Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day?or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data.
Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can?and should?be used to estimate current popular opinion. Once an understanding of the election process is built, we turn toward testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto proof of government legitimacy, those electoral processes may hide a dirty little secret of the government illicitly ensuring a favorable election outcome.
This book includes these features designed to make your statistical journey more enjoyable:
- Vignettes of elections, including maps, to provide concrete bases for the material
- In-chapter cues to help one avoid the heavy math?or to focus on it
- End-of-chapter problems designed to review and extend that which was covered in the chapter
- Many opportunities to turn the power of the R statistical environment to the enclosed election data files, as well as to those you find interesting
From these features, it is clear the audience for this book is quite diverse. This text provides mathematics for those interested in mathematics, but also offers detours for those who just want a good read and a deeper understanding of elections.
Author
Ole J. Forsberg holds PhDs in both political science and statistics. He currently teaches mathematics and statistics in the Department of Mathematics at Knox College in Galesburg, IL.
1. Polling 101
2. Polling 399
3. Combining Polls
4. In-Depth Analysis: Brexit 2016
5. Digit Tests
6. Differential Invalidation
7. Considering Geography
8. In-Depth Analysis: Sri Lanka since 1994
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