Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems

A hydroinformatics system represents an electronic knowledge encapsulator that models part of the real world and can be used for the simulation and analysis of physical, chemical and biological processes in water systems, in order to achieve a better management of the aquatic environment. Thus, modelling is at the heart of hydroinformatics. The theory of nonlinear dynamics and chaos, and the extent to which recent improvements in the understanding of inherently nonlinear natural processes present challenges to the use of mathematical models in the analysis of water and environmental systems, are elaborated in this work. In particular, it demonstrates that the deterministic chaos present in many nonlinear systems can impose fundamental limitations on our ability to predict behaviour, even when well-defined mathematical models exist. On the other hand, methodologies and tools from the theory of nonlinear dynamics and chaos can provide means for a better accuracy of short-term predictions as demonstrated through the practical applications in this work.

Chapter 1: Introduction, Chapter 2: Flood Forecasting Models and Uncertainy Representation, Chapter 3: Existing Mathematical Methods for Uncertainty Assessment, Chapter 4: Contribution of Present Research to Uncertainty Assessment Methods, Chapter 5: Application: Flood Forecasting Model for Klodzko Catchment (Poland), Chapter 6: Application: Flood Forecasting Model for Loire River (France), Chapter 7: Conclusions and Recommendations, Appendix I: Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Arithmetic and Defuzzification, Abbreviations, Notations, References, Samenvatting: Modellering Van Onzekerheid in Systemen Voor Hoogwatervoorspelling, Acknowledgements, About the Author

Shreedhar Maskey was born on 24 December 1966 in Charikot, in the district Dolkha, Nepal. In 1990, he graduated in Civil Engineering from Tribhuvan University in Nepal. Since 1991 he served in the same university as a lecturer until he joined UNESCO-IHE (then IRE-Delft) in 1997 to participate in the Master's Programme in Hydroinformatics. He received the Master of Science degree with distinction in hydro informatics in April 1 999. Since April 1999 he has been at UNESCO-IRE as a PhD research fellow. During this period he also worked for the COWl project (Apr. 1999 - Dec. 1999) and the OS1RIS2 project (Jan. 2000 - Mar. 2003) and assisted in various ways in the Hydroinformatics Master's Programme.